Singapore and Predictive Futures Markets
This weekend, Heather and I are going to Singapore! She has to renew her tourist visa in Japan, and I need a vacation. I haven't taken any days off since I started working at my job a year and a half ago, so I'm ready. Don't know what we'll do, but we have the address of a friend of a friend there, and maybe he'll take us around. Heather would like to check out the Chinese Opera and some other places that sound pretty cool. We've already booked a hotel in Little India - close to all the good food. I have heard that all the food is world-class there. Naturally we're really looking forward to it.
A few months ago I wrote about DARPA's cancelled project FutureMAP. I thought it was a great idea, one that died before it took off. Last month, there was an interesting MetaFilter article about predictive market systems. It seems that Google, in conjunction with economist Hal R. Varian, has created their own internal market, with better than expected results. Besides Google, the link lists another operational futures market that deals in real money. I'm thinking of creating an account at InTrade - however, the events on InTrade are decidedly less exciting than those of FutureMAP; e.g. Ben Bernanke to be announced as Next Chairman of the Federal Reserve versus North Korea Missile Attack.
Has anyone heard of any other predictive market systems out there?
Have you seen you can trade or bet depending on your inclination on the following on Intrade and or tradesports Nobel Prize Awards
USA or Israel Air Strike against Iran
GITMO to be closed
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to be captured
Osama Bin Laden to be captured
Asian Bird flu to be confirmed in the U.S
I have also traded on
Nobel Prize betting
US Troop Levels
Hurricanes and other stuff there.
Wow, I hadn't heard about the range of things that one could bet on. That's very interesting. I actually haven't yet even signed up for my account; I was waiting to see if it would take off before I started placing bets, and haven't signed up like I said I was going to... I completely forgot about it, actually! Anyway, I'm going to give it a go and sign up this afternoon. Thanks for the comment!